Forming and Selecting Flight Concepts for the New Millennium Program: Addressing a Failure in Quantitative Analysis Methods

Quantitative analysis methods are generally employed in making complex decisions about system selection for design and development. NASA’s New Millennium Program (NMP) from its inception applied this principle until it failed in the selection of new technologies for DS3. The NMP has since redressed this issue by updating their selection process and has thereafter been able to successfully choose new technologies for flight validation on a yearly basis. To understand what failed in the DS3 analysis and how in was addressed, a field study was performed on the NMP to capture the processes and issues surrounding the formation and selection of technical concept areas during the selection of new technologies for space flight validation. The NMP processes were captured and analyzed using ethnographic methods. The study found 1) setting hgh-level, break-through technological requirements leads to flight concepts that can potentially address a significant application domain, 2) producing multiple concepts are necessary to address disparate science interests, 3) promoting competitive choices fosters innovation, while not prejudging the outcome, and 4) obtaining prioritization of flight concepts by the science community balances their interests. These results lead to a deeper finding: the understandings, insights, and consensing from design, sensemaking, and negotiation processes that occur during the selection process were lost by quantitative models designed to produce a technology choice, hence making the sole use of quantitative models for technology selection inappropriate. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION RESEARCH METHODS NMP SELECTION PROCESS ISSUES DISCUSSION CONCLUSIONS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS REFERENCES BIOGRAPHIES CONCEPT FORMATION AND SELECTION PROCESS Martin G. Buehler Jet Propulsion Laboratory California Institute of Technology 4800 Oak Grove Dr. Pasadena, CA 91 109 Martin.G.Buehler@,iul.nasa.gov